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Compare certified heat pump ratings by size

Official test ratings for 9,640 central and mini-split heat pumps sold with today’s refrigerants, explained in plain words. Models are only compared with others of the same size and type.

Covers older R-410A heat pumps, no longer installed new. See models sold today · Updated

Three numbers worth knowing

  • 48%

    of models meet CEE 2025 Tier 1, the efficiency level many utility rebates use.

    4,663 of 9,640 models.

    See which ones

  • 69%

    of its 47°F heating output is what the typical heat pump still puts out at 5°F in the test.

    The best on this one rating keep all of it, or more.

    See them by size

  • 1.4%

    reach the cold-climate tier: full heating output and a COP of 2.1 or more at 5°F.

    About 1 in 75 models (137).

    See the cold-climate tier

Heating output as it gets colderIn the 5°F test, the typical ducted heat pump puts out 62% of its 47°F heating output, and the typical ductless one 62%.

Middle value (median) of the 253 models with cold-weather test results. Each model is measured against its own 47°F output, so sizes are not mixed. Source: NEEP cold-climate heat pump list.

Want the full temperature curves and every model’s distribution? Switch to Advanced

Top cold-climate picks, ducted 2.5–3 tons

Only units that keep at least 70% of their heat at 5°F, ranked on heat kept, efficiency at 5°F and seasonal efficiency (HSPF2), against units their size.

797 of 2,060 models in this size class qualify. 834 keep less than 70% of their heat at 5°F and 420 have no 5°F heat output rating, so they cannot show it.

Showing Ducted, 2.5–3 tons (27,000–38,999 Btu/h cooling). What size is my system?

  1. 1ARUN038GSS4LG3 tons · 38,000 Btu/h · DuctedKeeps 96% of its heat at 5°FMeets CEE 2025, CEE 2026, Xcel CC, ENERGY STAR CC
    Heat kept at 5°F
    96% (Capacity at 5°F vs 47°F)
    Top 10%
    Efficiency at 5°F
    3.19 (COP at 5°F)
    Top 10%
    Seasonal efficiency
    10.6 (HSPF2)
    Top 10%
    97.0score / 100
  2. 238MURAQ36AB3*with indoor coil H,PG48936 and furnace 927TA60080V21Carrier (sold as Bryant Heating and Cooling Systems)3 tons · 38,500 Btu/h · DuctedKeeps 115% of its heat at 5°FMeets CEE 2025, CEE 2026, CEE Advanced, Xcel CC, DOE CCHP
    Heat kept at 5°F
    115% (Capacity at 5°F vs 47°F)
    Top 10%
    Efficiency at 5°F
    2.34 (COP at 5°F)
    Great
    Seasonal efficiency
    11.5 (HSPF2)
    Top 10%
    96.4score / 100
  3. 338MURAQ30AB3*with indoor coil H,PG9J936 and furnace 927TA60080V21Carrier (sold as Bryant Heating and Cooling Systems)3 tons · 33,600 Btu/h · DuctedKeeps 125% of its heat at 5°FMeets CEE 2025, CEE 2026, CEE Advanced, Xcel CC, DOE CCHP
    Heat kept at 5°F
    125% (Capacity at 5°F vs 47°F)
    Top 10%
    Efficiency at 5°F
    2.24 (COP at 5°F)
    Great
    Seasonal efficiency
    10.5 (HSPF2)
    Top 10%
    95.1score / 100
  4. 4BOVD-36HDN1-M20Gwith indoor coil D(A,C,E)36C44+TDR and furnace BGH96M100C5BBosch2.5 tons · 31,200 Btu/h · DuctedKeeps 125% of its heat at 5°FMeets CEE 2025, CEE 2026, CEE Advanced, Xcel CC, DOE CCHP
    Heat kept at 5°F
    125% (Capacity at 5°F vs 47°F)
    Top 10%
    Efficiency at 5°F
    2.98 (COP at 5°F)
    Top 10%
    Seasonal efficiency
    9.0 (HSPF2)
    Good
    89.0score / 100
  5. 5NTXSKS30A112**with ducted air handler PEAD-A30AAMitsubishi Electric (sold as Trane / Mitsubishi Electric)Also listed as SUZ-KA30NA22.5 tons · 27,000 Btu/h · DuctedKeeps 75% of its heat at 5°FMeets CEE 2025, CEE 2026, Xcel CC
    Heat kept at 5°F
    75% (Capacity at 5°F vs 47°F)
    Good
    Efficiency at 5°F
    3.24 (COP at 5°F)
    Top 10%
    Seasonal efficiency
    11.4 (HSPF2)
    Top 10%
    88.1score / 100

Top 10 cold-climate picks, ducted, 2.5–3 tons

These are certified test ratings, not a recommendation for your home. The right size comes from a load calculation by a contractor.

What good looks like: ducted, 2.5–3 tons

The words on the picks above: good is better than half of this size class, great is the top quarter, top is the top 10%. Each scale comes from the class’s own ratings.

  • Capacity at 5°F vs 47°F

    Heating power kept at 5°F

    How much of its mild-weather heating power the unit still delivers at 5°F.

    Good
    65%+
    Great
    82%+
    Top 10%
    90%+

  • COP at 5°F

    Efficiency on a 5°F day

    How much heat the unit makes from each unit of electricity when it is 5°F outside.

    Good
    1.90+
    Great
    2.05+
    Top 10%
    2.34+

  • HSPF2

    Winter-long heating efficiency

    Heating efficiency over a whole winter, measured with a federal test.

    Good
    8.1+
    Great
    9.2+
    Top 10%
    10.0+

What size is my system?

Tons and Btu

A heat pump’s size is its rated cooling output, in Btu per hour. Installers talk in tons: one ton is 12,000 Btu per hour, so a 3-ton unit is about 36,000.

Where to find yours: the nameplate sticker on the outdoor unit lists the model number. Many model numbers include the size in thousands of Btu, such as 24 (2 tons), 36 (3 tons) or 48 (4 tons). Your quote or AHRI certificate also lists it. Look up a model number

These are certified test ratings, not a recommendation for your home. The right size comes from a load calculation by a contractor.

Size classes used here

  • Up to 1.5 tonsunder 21,000 Btu/h
  • 2 tons21,000–26,999 Btu/h
  • 2.5–3 tons27,000–38,999 Btu/h
  • 3.5–4.5 tons39,000–56,999 Btu/h
  • 5 tons and up57,000 Btu/h and up

Ducted or ductless

A ducted (central) heat pump moves air through a home’s ducts. A ductless mini-split puts a small unit on the wall of each room. Mini-splits usually test higher (typical cooling rating 20.5 vs 15.8), partly because the test for ducted units includes pushing air through ducts. That is why they are never ranked together here.

Next steps

Contractor, utility or analyst? The advanced view has every distribution, peer percentile, standards flow and data table behind these answers.

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