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Top cold-climate picks: 2.5–3 tons, by duct type

Qualifies when its capacity retention at 5°F (capacity at 5°F as a share of capacity at 47°F) is at least 70% and Capacity retention at 5°F, COP at 5°F, HSPF2 are all rated. Score = the equal-weight mean of its peer percentiles on Capacity retention at 5°F, COP at 5°F, HSPF2 (share of the other models in its peer group it beats, 0–100), all from one certified pairing: in each duct type a model is sold in, its qualifying pairing of that type with the best score; equal scores (one decimal) go to the higher heating capacity at 5°F. COP at 5°F alone is not used: it is measured at whatever heat output the unit delivers at 5°F, so a unit with little output there can still post a high COP. The single-rating boards remain, each labelled as ranked by that one rating. Only manufacturers with a QMID (IRS Qualified Manufacturer ID) on file are ranked.

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Top cold-climate picks: Ducted, 2.5–3 tons

797 of 2,060 models in this size class qualify. 834 keep less than 70% of their heat at 5°F and 420 have no 5°F heat output rating, so they cannot show it. 397 of the qualifiers are from manufacturers with a QMID on file (the ranked pool).

Ducted, 2.5–3 tons: qualifiers ranked by cold-climate score (mean of the three peer percentiles); equal scores go to the higher heat output at 5°F. Every number in a row is from the pairing the score is computed on: in each duct type, the model’s best-scoring pairing that keeps at least 70% of its heat.
# · Outdoor modelManufacturerSize · typeCap. 5/47COP@5°FHSPF2Btu/h @5°FSEER2EER2MeetsCombosAHRI ref.ScoreBeats on Cap. 5/47Beats on COP@5°FBeats on HSPF2
1ARUN038GSS4LGLG3 tons38,000 Btu/h · Ducted96%3.1910.640,32020.114.0CEE 25CEE 26XcelES CC3871793297.094%100%98%
238MURAQ36AB3*BRYANT HEATING AND COOLING SYSTEMSwith indoor coil H,PG48936 and furnace 927TA60080V21Carrier3 tons38,500 Btu/h · Ducted115%2.3411.541,50018.011.5CEE 25CEE 26CEE AdvXcelDOE4,87421676198896.499%90%100%
338MURAQ30AB3*BRYANT HEATING AND COOLING SYSTEMSwith indoor coil H,PG9J936 and furnace 927TA60080V21Carrier3 tons33,600 Btu/h · Ducted125%2.2410.537,60017.010.5CEE 25CEE 26CEE AdvXcelDOE3,79321677904695.1100%88%98%
4BOVD-36HDN1-M20GBOSCHwith indoor coil D(A,C,E)36C44+TDR and furnace BGH96M100C5BBosch2.5 tons31,200 Btu/h · Ducted125%2.989.032,00018.511.9CEE 25CEE 26CEE AdvXcelDOE11321537543889.0100%99%69%
5NTXSKS30A112**Trane / Mitsubishi Electric · NV-Serieswith ducted air handler PEAD-A30AAAlso listed as SUZ-KA30NA2Mitsubishi Electric2.5 tons27,000 Btu/h · Ducted75%3.2411.422,40018.911.7CEE 25CEE 26Xcel420770277188.165%100%100%
6MCY-MAP0367HS-ULTOSHIBA CARRIER · MCY-MAP0367HS-ULCarrier3 tons36,000 Btu/h · Ducted76%3.0510.927,40020.112.1CEE 25CEE 26Xcel21004987887.666%99%98%
7MCY-MAP0367HS-UL*TOSHIBA CARRIER · MCY-MAP0367HS-UL*Carrier3 tons36,000 Btu/h · Ducted78%2.7010.928,20020.112.1CEE 25CEE 26XcelES CC321335025386.767%95%98%
8AOUH30LUAS1FUJITSU · H-Serieswith ducted air handler ARUH30LUASFujitsu2.5 tons30,000 Btu/h · Ducted93%2.0410.028,00018.510.4CEE 25CEE 26Xcel421107883786.692%75%93%
9RO1HHZ30AJ8SRHEEM · Classic Pluswith ducted air handler RIMHHZ30AJ8SRheem2.5 tons30,000 Btu/h · Ducted93%2.0410.028,00018.510.4CEE 25CEE 26Xcel621178174186.692%75%93%
10PUZ-HA36NKA1***Mitsubishi Electric · P-Serieswith ducted air handler PVA-A36AAAlso sold as Trane / Mitsubishi Electric PUZ-HA36NKA, Trane / Mitsubishi Electric TRUZH0361KA00, Trane / Mitsubishi Electric TRUZH0361KA00NA, Trane / Mitsubishi Electric TRUZH0361KA10Mitsubishi Electric3 tons33,000 Btu/h · Ducted95%2.0010.038,00018.213.2CEE 25CEE 26XcelES CC1021361771084.893%68%93%

Ducted, 2.5–3 tons board

Top cold-climate picks: Non-ducted, 2.5–3 tons

491 of 1,177 models in this size class qualify. 479 keep less than 70% of their heat at 5°F and 202 have no 5°F heat output rating, so they cannot show it. 232 of the qualifiers are from manufacturers with a QMID on file (the ranked pool).

Non-ducted, 2.5–3 tons: qualifiers ranked by cold-climate score (mean of the three peer percentiles); equal scores go to the higher heat output at 5°F. Every number in a row is from the pairing the score is computed on: in each duct type, the model’s best-scoring pairing that keeps at least 70% of its heat.
# · Outdoor modelManufacturerSize · typeCap. 5/47COP@5°FHSPF2Btu/h @5°FSEER2EER2MeetsCombosAHRI ref.ScoreBeats on Cap. 5/47Beats on COP@5°FBeats on HSPF2
1ARUN038GSS4LGLG3 tons38,000 Btu/h · Non-ducted96%3.1910.640,32020.114.0CEE 25CEE 26XcelES CC3871793192.282%100%95%
2M4OX630-36HFN1-M1X*MDV · MSEP serisMidea3 tons36,000 Btu/h · Non-ducted103%2.0010.937,00022.412.5CEE 25CEE 26XcelES CC321330187790.997%79%97%
3SENA-36HF-MOBSENVILLE · SENA SeriesSenville3 tons36,000 Btu/h · Non-ducted103%2.0010.937,00022.412.5CEE 25CEE 26XcelES CC321373265690.997%79%97%
4A-VMH36QV-1ACOMFORT-AIRE · A-seriesLennox3 tons36,000 Btu/h · Non-ducted103%2.0010.937,00022.412.5CEE 25CEE 26XcelES CC621437775690.997%79%97%
5AOU30RLXEHFUJITSU · H-Serieswith ductless indoor unit ASU30RLEFujitsu2.5 tons30,000 Btu/h · Non-ducted107%2.0610.032,03018.712.5CEE 25CEE 26XcelES CC1891245490.698%92%82%
6PUMY-HP36NKMU1MITSUBISHI ELECTRIC · S-SeriesAlso sold as Trane / Mitsubishi Electric NTXMSH36A142A; also listed as MXZ-SM36NAMHZMitsubishi Electric3 tons36,000 Btu/h · Non-ducted100%2.0012.042,00023.015.0CEE 25CEE 26Xcel320483427289.891%79%100%
7AOUH30LUAS1FUJITSU · H-Serieswith ductless indoor unit AUUH30LUASFujitsu2.5 tons30,000 Btu/h · Non-ducted93%2.1210.628,00021.511.7CEE 25CEE 26XcelES CC421107883289.681%93%95%
8RO1HHZ30AJ8SRHEEM · Classic Pluswith ductless indoor unit RIGHHZ30AJ8SRheem2.5 tons30,000 Btu/h · Non-ducted93%2.1210.628,00021.511.7CEE 25CEE 26Xcel621178174589.681%93%95%
9RO1HFZ30AJ2HRUUD · Classic Pluswith ductless indoor unit UIWHFZ30AJ2SRheem2.5 tons30,000 Btu/h · Non-ducted100%2.0610.032,03018.712.5CEE 25CEE 26Xcel221036809388.892%92%82%
10LUU360HHVLG · LUU360HHVwith ductless indoor unit LCN369HVLG3 tons36,000 Btu/h · Non-ducted93%2.1010.637,00021.512.6CEE 25CEE 26XcelES CC320578876888.781%93%93%

Non-ducted, 2.5–3 tons board

Download CSV of these cold-climate boardsEvery board above in one file, ranked by cold-climate score within each peer group.