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Top cold-climate picks by size

Heat pumps that keep most of their heat when it is 5°F outside, ranked on three ratings at once against units their size: how much heat they keep, how efficient they are at 5°F, and how efficient they are over a whole winter (HSPF2).

Covers older R-410A heat pumps, no longer installed new. See models sold today · Updated

Showing Ducted, 2.5–3 tons (27,000–38,999 Btu/h cooling). What size is my system?

Top cold-climate picks, ducted 2.5–3 tons

Only units that keep at least 70% of their heat at 5°F, ranked on heat kept, efficiency at 5°F and seasonal efficiency (HSPF2), against units their size.

797 of 2,060 models in this size class qualify. 834 keep less than 70% of their heat at 5°F and 420 have no 5°F heat output rating, so they cannot show it.

  1. 1ARUN038GSS4LG3 tons · 38,000 Btu/h · DuctedKeeps 96% of its heat at 5°FMeets CEE 2025, CEE 2026, Xcel CC, ENERGY STAR CC
    Heat kept at 5°F
    96% (Capacity at 5°F vs 47°F)
    Top 10%
    Efficiency at 5°F
    3.19 (COP at 5°F)
    Top 10%
    Seasonal efficiency
    10.6 (HSPF2)
    Top 10%
    97.0score / 100
  2. 238MURAQ36AB3*with indoor coil H,PG48936 and furnace 927TA60080V21Carrier (sold as Bryant Heating and Cooling Systems)3 tons · 38,500 Btu/h · DuctedKeeps 115% of its heat at 5°FMeets CEE 2025, CEE 2026, CEE Advanced, Xcel CC, DOE CCHP
    Heat kept at 5°F
    115% (Capacity at 5°F vs 47°F)
    Top 10%
    Efficiency at 5°F
    2.34 (COP at 5°F)
    Great
    Seasonal efficiency
    11.5 (HSPF2)
    Top 10%
    96.4score / 100
  3. 338MURAQ30AB3*with indoor coil H,PG9J936 and furnace 927TA60080V21Carrier (sold as Bryant Heating and Cooling Systems)3 tons · 33,600 Btu/h · DuctedKeeps 125% of its heat at 5°FMeets CEE 2025, CEE 2026, CEE Advanced, Xcel CC, DOE CCHP
    Heat kept at 5°F
    125% (Capacity at 5°F vs 47°F)
    Top 10%
    Efficiency at 5°F
    2.24 (COP at 5°F)
    Great
    Seasonal efficiency
    10.5 (HSPF2)
    Top 10%
    95.1score / 100
  4. 4BOVD-36HDN1-M20Gwith indoor coil D(A,C,E)36C44+TDR and furnace BGH96M100C5BBosch2.5 tons · 31,200 Btu/h · DuctedKeeps 125% of its heat at 5°FMeets CEE 2025, CEE 2026, CEE Advanced, Xcel CC, DOE CCHP
    Heat kept at 5°F
    125% (Capacity at 5°F vs 47°F)
    Top 10%
    Efficiency at 5°F
    2.98 (COP at 5°F)
    Top 10%
    Seasonal efficiency
    9.0 (HSPF2)
    Good
    89.0score / 100
  5. 5NTXSKS30A112**with ducted air handler PEAD-A30AAMitsubishi Electric (sold as Trane / Mitsubishi Electric)Also listed as SUZ-KA30NA22.5 tons · 27,000 Btu/h · DuctedKeeps 75% of its heat at 5°FMeets CEE 2025, CEE 2026, Xcel CC
    Heat kept at 5°F
    75% (Capacity at 5°F vs 47°F)
    Good
    Efficiency at 5°F
    3.24 (COP at 5°F)
    Top 10%
    Seasonal efficiency
    11.4 (HSPF2)
    Top 10%
    88.1score / 100
  6. 6MCY-MAP0367HS-ULCarrier (sold as Toshiba Carrier)3 tons · 36,000 Btu/h · DuctedKeeps 76% of its heat at 5°FMeets CEE 2025, CEE 2026, Xcel CC
    Heat kept at 5°F
    76% (Capacity at 5°F vs 47°F)
    Good
    Efficiency at 5°F
    3.05 (COP at 5°F)
    Top 10%
    Seasonal efficiency
    10.9 (HSPF2)
    Top 10%
    87.6score / 100
  7. 7MCY-MAP0367HS-UL*Carrier (sold as Toshiba Carrier)3 tons · 36,000 Btu/h · DuctedKeeps 78% of its heat at 5°FMeets CEE 2025, CEE 2026, Xcel CC, ENERGY STAR CC
    Heat kept at 5°F
    78% (Capacity at 5°F vs 47°F)
    Good
    Efficiency at 5°F
    2.70 (COP at 5°F)
    Top 10%
    Seasonal efficiency
    10.9 (HSPF2)
    Top 10%
    86.7score / 100
  8. 8AOUH30LUAS1with ducted air handler ARUH30LUASFujitsu2.5 tons · 30,000 Btu/h · DuctedKeeps 93% of its heat at 5°FMeets CEE 2025, CEE 2026, Xcel CC
    Heat kept at 5°F
    93% (Capacity at 5°F vs 47°F)
    Top 10%
    Efficiency at 5°F
    2.04 (COP at 5°F)
    Good
    Seasonal efficiency
    10.0 (HSPF2)
    Top 10%
    86.6score / 100
  9. 9RO1HHZ30AJ8Swith ducted air handler RIMHHZ30AJ8SRheem2.5 tons · 30,000 Btu/h · DuctedKeeps 93% of its heat at 5°FMeets CEE 2025, CEE 2026, Xcel CC
    Heat kept at 5°F
    93% (Capacity at 5°F vs 47°F)
    Top 10%
    Efficiency at 5°F
    2.04 (COP at 5°F)
    Good
    Seasonal efficiency
    10.0 (HSPF2)
    Top 10%
    86.6score / 100
  10. 10PUZ-HA36NKA1***with ducted air handler PVA-A36AAMitsubishi ElectricAlso sold as Trane / Mitsubishi Electric PUZ-HA36NKA, Trane / Mitsubishi Electric TRUZH0361KA00, Trane / Mitsubishi Electric TRUZH0361KA00NA, Trane / Mitsubishi Electric TRUZH0361KA103 tons · 33,000 Btu/h · DuctedKeeps 95% of its heat at 5°FMeets CEE 2025, CEE 2026, Xcel CC, ENERGY STAR CC
    Heat kept at 5°F
    95% (Capacity at 5°F vs 47°F)
    Top 10%
    Efficiency at 5°F
    2.00 (COP at 5°F)
    Good
    Seasonal efficiency
    10.0 (HSPF2)
    Top 10%
    84.8score / 100

These are certified test ratings, not a recommendation for your home. The right size comes from a load calculation by a contractor.

Want every qualifier’s peer percentiles and the all-sizes board? Switch to Advanced

What good looks like: ducted, 2.5–3 tons

Good is better than half of this size class, great is the top quarter, top is the top 10%. The scale comes from the class’s own ratings.

  • Capacity at 5°F vs 47°F

    Heating power kept at 5°F

    How much of its mild-weather heating power the unit still delivers at 5°F.

    Good
    65%+
    Great
    82%+
    Top 10%
    90%+

  • COP at 5°F

    Efficiency on a 5°F day

    How much heat the unit makes from each unit of electricity when it is 5°F outside.

    Good
    1.90+
    Great
    2.05+
    Top 10%
    2.34+

  • HSPF2

    Winter-long heating efficiency

    Heating efficiency over a whole winter, measured with a federal test.

    Good
    8.1+
    Great
    9.2+
    Top 10%
    10.0+

Next steps

The advanced view adds the all-sizes boards, each qualifier’s peer percentiles, charts of every model in each size class, and the EER2 and heat output boards.

Open the advanced view