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Top cold-climate picks by size

Heat pumps that keep most of their heat when it is 5°F outside, ranked on three ratings at once against units their size: how much heat they keep, how efficient they are at 5°F, and how efficient they are over a whole winter (HSPF2).

Covers older R-410A heat pumps, no longer installed new. See models sold today · Updated

Showing Ductless, 2.5–3 tons (27,000–38,999 Btu/h cooling). What size is my system?

Top cold-climate picks, ductless 2.5–3 tons

Only units that keep at least 70% of their heat at 5°F, ranked on heat kept, efficiency at 5°F and seasonal efficiency (HSPF2), against units their size.

491 of 1,177 models in this size class qualify. 479 keep less than 70% of their heat at 5°F and 202 have no 5°F heat output rating, so they cannot show it.

  1. 1ARUN038GSS4LG3 tons · 38,000 Btu/h · DuctlessKeeps 96% of its heat at 5°FMeets CEE 2025, CEE 2026, Xcel CC, ENERGY STAR CC
    Heat kept at 5°F
    96% (Capacity at 5°F vs 47°F)
    Great
    Efficiency at 5°F
    3.19 (COP at 5°F)
    Top 10%
    Seasonal efficiency
    10.6 (HSPF2)
    Top 10%
    92.2score / 100
  2. 2M4OX630-36HFN1-M1X*Midea (sold as MDV)3 tons · 36,000 Btu/h · DuctlessKeeps 103% of its heat at 5°FMeets CEE 2025, CEE 2026, Xcel CC, ENERGY STAR CC
    Heat kept at 5°F
    103% (Capacity at 5°F vs 47°F)
    Top 10%
    Efficiency at 5°F
    2.00 (COP at 5°F)
    Great
    Seasonal efficiency
    10.9 (HSPF2)
    Top 10%
    90.9score / 100
  3. 3SENA-36HF-MOBSenville3 tons · 36,000 Btu/h · DuctlessKeeps 103% of its heat at 5°FMeets CEE 2025, CEE 2026, Xcel CC, ENERGY STAR CC
    Heat kept at 5°F
    103% (Capacity at 5°F vs 47°F)
    Top 10%
    Efficiency at 5°F
    2.00 (COP at 5°F)
    Great
    Seasonal efficiency
    10.9 (HSPF2)
    Top 10%
    90.9score / 100
  4. 4A-VMH36QV-1ALennox (sold as Comfort-Aire)3 tons · 36,000 Btu/h · DuctlessKeeps 103% of its heat at 5°FMeets CEE 2025, CEE 2026, Xcel CC, ENERGY STAR CC
    Heat kept at 5°F
    103% (Capacity at 5°F vs 47°F)
    Top 10%
    Efficiency at 5°F
    2.00 (COP at 5°F)
    Great
    Seasonal efficiency
    10.9 (HSPF2)
    Top 10%
    90.9score / 100
  5. 5AOU30RLXEHwith ductless indoor unit ASU30RLEFujitsu2.5 tons · 30,000 Btu/h · DuctlessKeeps 107% of its heat at 5°FMeets CEE 2025, CEE 2026, Xcel CC, ENERGY STAR CC
    Heat kept at 5°F
    107% (Capacity at 5°F vs 47°F)
    Top 10%
    Efficiency at 5°F
    2.06 (COP at 5°F)
    Top 10%
    Seasonal efficiency
    10.0 (HSPF2)
    Great
    90.6score / 100
  6. 6PUMY-HP36NKMU1Mitsubishi ElectricAlso sold as Trane / Mitsubishi Electric NTXMSH36A142A; also listed as MXZ-SM36NAMHZ3 tons · 36,000 Btu/h · DuctlessKeeps 100% of its heat at 5°FMeets CEE 2025, CEE 2026, Xcel CC
    Heat kept at 5°F
    100% (Capacity at 5°F vs 47°F)
    Top 10%
    Efficiency at 5°F
    2.00 (COP at 5°F)
    Great
    Seasonal efficiency
    12.0 (HSPF2)
    Top 10%
    89.8score / 100
  7. 7AOUH30LUAS1with ductless indoor unit AUUH30LUASFujitsu2.5 tons · 30,000 Btu/h · DuctlessKeeps 93% of its heat at 5°FMeets CEE 2025, CEE 2026, Xcel CC, ENERGY STAR CC
    Heat kept at 5°F
    93% (Capacity at 5°F vs 47°F)
    Great
    Efficiency at 5°F
    2.12 (COP at 5°F)
    Top 10%
    Seasonal efficiency
    10.6 (HSPF2)
    Top 10%
    89.6score / 100
  8. 8RO1HHZ30AJ8Swith ductless indoor unit RIGHHZ30AJ8SRheem2.5 tons · 30,000 Btu/h · DuctlessKeeps 93% of its heat at 5°FMeets CEE 2025, CEE 2026, Xcel CC
    Heat kept at 5°F
    93% (Capacity at 5°F vs 47°F)
    Great
    Efficiency at 5°F
    2.12 (COP at 5°F)
    Top 10%
    Seasonal efficiency
    10.6 (HSPF2)
    Top 10%
    89.6score / 100
  9. 9RO1HFZ30AJ2Hwith ductless indoor unit UIWHFZ30AJ2SRheem (sold as RUUD)2.5 tons · 30,000 Btu/h · DuctlessKeeps 100% of its heat at 5°FMeets CEE 2025, CEE 2026, Xcel CC
    Heat kept at 5°F
    100% (Capacity at 5°F vs 47°F)
    Top 10%
    Efficiency at 5°F
    2.06 (COP at 5°F)
    Top 10%
    Seasonal efficiency
    10.0 (HSPF2)
    Great
    88.8score / 100
  10. 10LUU360HHVwith ductless indoor unit LCN369HVLG3 tons · 36,000 Btu/h · DuctlessKeeps 93% of its heat at 5°FMeets CEE 2025, CEE 2026, Xcel CC, ENERGY STAR CC
    Heat kept at 5°F
    93% (Capacity at 5°F vs 47°F)
    Great
    Efficiency at 5°F
    2.10 (COP at 5°F)
    Top 10%
    Seasonal efficiency
    10.6 (HSPF2)
    Top 10%
    88.7score / 100

These are certified test ratings, not a recommendation for your home. The right size comes from a load calculation by a contractor.

Want every qualifier’s peer percentiles and the all-sizes board? Switch to Advanced

What good looks like: ductless, 2.5–3 tons

Good is better than half of this size class, great is the top quarter, top is the top 10%. The scale comes from the class’s own ratings.

  • Capacity at 5°F vs 47°F

    Heating power kept at 5°F

    How much of its mild-weather heating power the unit still delivers at 5°F.

    Good
    69%+
    Great
    89%+
    Top 10%
    100%+

  • COP at 5°F

    Efficiency on a 5°F day

    How much heat the unit makes from each unit of electricity when it is 5°F outside.

    Good
    1.85+
    Great
    2.00+
    Top 10%
    2.02+

  • HSPF2

    Winter-long heating efficiency

    Heating efficiency over a whole winter, measured with a federal test.

    Good
    9.0+
    Great
    9.8+
    Top 10%
    10.3+

Next steps

The advanced view adds the all-sizes boards, each qualifier’s peer percentiles, charts of every model in each size class, and the EER2 and heat output boards.

Open the advanced view