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Top cold-climate picks by size

Heat pumps that keep most of their heat when it is 5°F outside, ranked on three ratings at once against units their size: how much heat they keep, how efficient they are at 5°F, and how efficient they are over a whole winter (HSPF2).

Covers older R-410A heat pumps, no longer installed new. See models sold today · Updated

Showing Ducted, 3.5–4.5 tons (39,000–56,999 Btu/h cooling). What size is my system?

Top cold-climate picks, ducted 3.5–4.5 tons

Only units that keep at least 70% of their heat at 5°F, ranked on heat kept, efficiency at 5°F and seasonal efficiency (HSPF2), against units their size.

569 of 2,074 models in this size class qualify. 904 keep less than 70% of their heat at 5°F and 590 have no 5°F heat output rating, so they cannot show it.

  1. 1MLB048S4S-1Pwith ducted air handler MMDB048S4-2PLennox4 tons · 48,000 Btu/h · DuctedKeeps 96% of its heat at 5°FMeets ENERGY STAR CC
    Heat kept at 5°F
    96% (Capacity at 5°F vs 47°F)
    Top 10%
    Efficiency at 5°F
    2.02 (COP at 5°F)
    Good
    Seasonal efficiency
    10.3 (HSPF2)
    Top 10%
    88.9score / 100
  2. 2MLB048S4S-2Pwith ducted air handler MMDB048S4-*PLennox4 tons · 48,000 Btu/h · DuctedKeeps 96% of its heat at 5°FMeets none of the standards tracked here
    Heat kept at 5°F
    96% (Capacity at 5°F vs 47°F)
    Top 10%
    Efficiency at 5°F
    2.02 (COP at 5°F)
    Good
    Seasonal efficiency
    10.2 (HSPF2)
    Top 10%
    88.6score / 100
  3. 3BOVA-60HDN1-M20Gwith ducted air handler L(E,G)M48G4Bosch4 tons · 47,000 Btu/h · DuctedKeeps 83% of its heat at 5°FMeets CEE 2025, CEE 2026, Xcel CC
    Heat kept at 5°F
    83% (Capacity at 5°F vs 47°F)
    Great
    Efficiency at 5°F
    2.61 (COP at 5°F)
    Top 10%
    Seasonal efficiency
    9.5 (HSPF2)
    Top 10%
    88.1score / 100
  4. 4MCY-MAP0487HS-UL*Carrier (sold as Toshiba Carrier)4 tons · 48,000 Btu/h · DuctedKeeps 81% of its heat at 5°FMeets CEE 2025, CEE 2026, Xcel CC
    Heat kept at 5°F
    81% (Capacity at 5°F vs 47°F)
    Great
    Efficiency at 5°F
    2.50 (COP at 5°F)
    Great
    Seasonal efficiency
    10.0 (HSPF2)
    Top 10%
    87.7score / 100
  5. 5BOVB-60HDN1-M20Gwith ducted air handler L(E,G)M48G4Bosch4 tons · 47,000 Btu/h · DuctedKeeps 83% of its heat at 5°FMeets CEE 2025, CEE 2026, Xcel CC
    Heat kept at 5°F
    83% (Capacity at 5°F vs 47°F)
    Great
    Efficiency at 5°F
    2.48 (COP at 5°F)
    Great
    Seasonal efficiency
    9.5 (HSPF2)
    Top 10%
    87.3score / 100
  6. 6ROSH42VGSNwith ducted air handler RIDH42AXCJRheemAlso sold as RUUD RO1HGZ42AJ8S3.5 tons · 42,000 Btu/h · DuctedKeeps 84% of its heat at 5°FMeets CEE 2025, CEE 2026, Xcel CC
    Heat kept at 5°F
    84% (Capacity at 5°F vs 47°F)
    Great
    Efficiency at 5°F
    2.28 (COP at 5°F)
    Great
    Seasonal efficiency
    9.8 (HSPF2)
    Top 10%
    87.0score / 100
  7. 7AC060BXUPCHwith ducted air handler L(E,G)M60E4Samsung4.5 tons · 56,500 Btu/h · DuctedKeeps 102% of its heat at 5°FMeets CEE Advanced, DOE CCHP, ENERGY STAR CC
    Heat kept at 5°F
    102% (Capacity at 5°F vs 47°F)
    Top 10%
    Efficiency at 5°F
    2.34 (COP at 5°F)
    Great
    Seasonal efficiency
    9.0 (HSPF2)
    Good
    86.4score / 100
  8. 8LMU480HHVLG4 tons · 48,000 Btu/h · DuctedKeeps 90% of its heat at 5°FMeets CEE 2025, CEE 2026, Xcel CC, ENERGY STAR CC
    Heat kept at 5°F
    90% (Capacity at 5°F vs 47°F)
    Top 10%
    Efficiency at 5°F
    2.02 (COP at 5°F)
    Good
    Seasonal efficiency
    10.0 (HSPF2)
    Top 10%
    86.4score / 100
  9. 9MOE30U-48HFN1-M-[X]with ducted air handler MTI-48HWFN1-MMidea (sold as MDV)Also sold as CTMorley MOU-A48LH-2; also listed as MOE30U-48HFN1-M-[X](GA)4 tons · 48,000 Btu/h · DuctedKeeps 88% of its heat at 5°FMeets CEE 2025, CEE 2026, Xcel CC, ENERGY STAR CC
    Heat kept at 5°F
    88% (Capacity at 5°F vs 47°F)
    Great
    Efficiency at 5°F
    2.02 (COP at 5°F)
    Good
    Seasonal efficiency
    10.3 (HSPF2)
    Top 10%
    86.4score / 100
  10. 10CH-HYP48LCUOwith ducted air handler CH-48LCDTU/ICooper&Hunter (sold as C&H)Also listed as CH-NHPR48LCU-230VO4 tons · 48,000 Btu/h · DuctedKeeps 88% of its heat at 5°FMeets none of the standards tracked here
    Heat kept at 5°F
    88% (Capacity at 5°F vs 47°F)
    Great
    Efficiency at 5°F
    2.02 (COP at 5°F)
    Good
    Seasonal efficiency
    10.3 (HSPF2)
    Top 10%
    86.4score / 100

These are certified test ratings, not a recommendation for your home. The right size comes from a load calculation by a contractor.

Want every qualifier’s peer percentiles and the all-sizes board? Switch to Advanced

What good looks like: ducted, 3.5–4.5 tons

Good is better than half of this size class, great is the top quarter, top is the top 10%. The scale comes from the class’s own ratings.

  • Capacity at 5°F vs 47°F

    Heating power kept at 5°F

    How much of its mild-weather heating power the unit still delivers at 5°F.

    Good
    65%+
    Great
    81%+
    Top 10%
    88%+

  • COP at 5°F

    Efficiency on a 5°F day

    How much heat the unit makes from each unit of electricity when it is 5°F outside.

    Good
    1.91+
    Great
    2.10+
    Top 10%
    2.50+

  • HSPF2

    Winter-long heating efficiency

    Heating efficiency over a whole winter, measured with a federal test.

    Good
    8.1+
    Great
    9.0+
    Top 10%
    9.4+

Next steps

The advanced view adds the all-sizes boards, each qualifier’s peer percentiles, charts of every model in each size class, and the EER2 and heat output boards.

Open the advanced view