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Top cold-climate picks by size

Heat pumps that keep most of their heat when it is 5°F outside, ranked on three ratings at once against units their size: how much heat they keep, how efficient they are at 5°F, and how efficient they are over a whole winter (HSPF2).

Covers older R-410A heat pumps, no longer installed new. See models sold today · Updated

Showing Ducted, Up to 1.5 tons (under 21,000 Btu/h cooling). What size is my system?

Top cold-climate picks, ducted up to 1.5 tons

Only units that keep at least 70% of their heat at 5°F, ranked on heat kept, efficiency at 5°F and seasonal efficiency (HSPF2), against units their size.

614 of 950 models in this size class qualify. 253 keep less than 70% of their heat at 5°F and 74 have no 5°F heat output rating, so they cannot show it.

  1. 1MOX430U-18HFN1-Mwith ducted air handler MVBE-18HWFN1-MM3EMidea (sold as MDV)1.5 tons · 18,000 Btu/h · DuctedKeeps 99% of its heat at 5°FMeets CEE 2025, CEE 2026, Xcel CC, ENERGY STAR CC
    Heat kept at 5°F
    99% (Capacity at 5°F vs 47°F)
    Great
    Efficiency at 5°F
    2.30 (COP at 5°F)
    Great
    Seasonal efficiency
    10.8 (HSPF2)
    Top 10%
    86.9score / 100
  2. 2SHV18H2R20with ducted air handler WEV18H2R19Innovair1.5 tons · 18,000 Btu/h · DuctedKeeps 99% of its heat at 5°FMeets CEE 2025, CEE 2026, Xcel CC, ENERGY STAR CC
    Heat kept at 5°F
    99% (Capacity at 5°F vs 47°F)
    Great
    Efficiency at 5°F
    2.30 (COP at 5°F)
    Great
    Seasonal efficiency
    10.8 (HSPF2)
    Top 10%
    86.9score / 100
  3. 3BZ33-INV18OUT2-Jwith ducted air handler BZ33-WMAHU18-JBreeze331.5 tons · 18,000 Btu/h · DuctedKeeps 99% of its heat at 5°FMeets CEE 2025, CEE 2026, Xcel CC, ENERGY STAR CC
    Heat kept at 5°F
    99% (Capacity at 5°F vs 47°F)
    Great
    Efficiency at 5°F
    2.30 (COP at 5°F)
    Great
    Seasonal efficiency
    10.8 (HSPF2)
    Top 10%
    86.9score / 100
  4. 4AOUH12LUAS1with ducted air handler ARUH12LUASFujitsu1 ton · 12,000 Btu/h · DuctedKeeps 129% of its heat at 5°FMeets CEE 2025, CEE 2026, Xcel CC, ENERGY STAR CC
    Heat kept at 5°F
    129% (Capacity at 5°F vs 47°F)
    Top 10%
    Efficiency at 5°F
    2.02 (COP at 5°F)
    Good
    Seasonal efficiency
    10.5 (HSPF2)
    Great
    83.5score / 100
  5. 5RO1HHZ12AJ8Swith ducted air handler RIMHHZ12AJ8SRheem (sold as RUUD)1 ton · 12,000 Btu/h · DuctedKeeps 129% of its heat at 5°FMeets CEE 2025, CEE 2026, Xcel CC
    Heat kept at 5°F
    129% (Capacity at 5°F vs 47°F)
    Top 10%
    Efficiency at 5°F
    2.02 (COP at 5°F)
    Good
    Seasonal efficiency
    10.5 (HSPF2)
    Great
    83.5score / 100
  6. 6DLCSRBH18AAKwith ducted air handler DLFSDAH18XHKMideaAlso sold as Carrier 38MARBQ18AA3, MDV MOX430-17HFN1-MT0W, Arcoaire DLCSRBH18AAK; also listed as 38MARBQ18AA31.5 tons · 17,500 Btu/h · DuctedKeeps 95% of its heat at 5°FMeets CEE 2025, CEE 2026, Xcel CC, ENERGY STAR CC
    Heat kept at 5°F
    95% (Capacity at 5°F vs 47°F)
    Good
    Efficiency at 5°F
    2.20 (COP at 5°F)
    Great
    Seasonal efficiency
    10.8 (HSPF2)
    Top 10%
    81.3score / 100
  7. 7LUU090HVwith ducted air handler LHN098HV1LG1 ton · 9,000 Btu/h · DuctedKeeps 81% of its heat at 5°FMeets CEE 2025, CEE 2026, Xcel CC, ENERGY STAR CC
    Heat kept at 5°F
    81% (Capacity at 5°F vs 47°F)
    Good
    Efficiency at 5°F
    2.30 (COP at 5°F)
    Great
    Seasonal efficiency
    10.4 (HSPF2)
    Great
    78.7score / 100
  8. 8MPC009S4S-1Pwith ducted air handler MMDB009S4-*PLennoxAlso sold as AirEase 4DHPS209S-1P1 ton · 9,000 Btu/h · DuctedKeeps 85% of its heat at 5°FMeets CEE 2025, CEE 2026, Xcel CC, ENERGY STAR CC
    Heat kept at 5°F
    85% (Capacity at 5°F vs 47°F)
    Good
    Efficiency at 5°F
    2.40 (COP at 5°F)
    Great
    Seasonal efficiency
    10.0 (HSPF2)
    Great
    77.6score / 100
  9. 9SUZ-KA12NAHZ*with ducted air handler TPEADA0121AA90AMitsubishi Electric (sold as Trane / Mitsubishi Electric)Also listed as NTXSKH12A1121 ton · 12,000 Btu/h · DuctedKeeps 100% of its heat at 5°FMeets CEE 2025, CEE 2026, Xcel CC, ENERGY STAR CC
    Heat kept at 5°F
    100% (Capacity at 5°F vs 47°F)
    Great
    Efficiency at 5°F
    2.08 (COP at 5°F)
    Good
    Seasonal efficiency
    10.0 (HSPF2)
    Great
    77.0score / 100
  10. 10MLB009S4S-1Pwith ducted air handler MMDB009S4-2PLennox0.5 tons · 8,800 Btu/h · DuctedKeeps 109% of its heat at 5°FMeets CEE 2025, CEE 2026, Xcel CC, ENERGY STAR CC
    Heat kept at 5°F
    109% (Capacity at 5°F vs 47°F)
    Top 10%
    Efficiency at 5°F
    1.90 (COP at 5°F)
    Below the middle
    Seasonal efficiency
    12.0 (HSPF2)
    Top 10%
    75.8score / 100

These are certified test ratings, not a recommendation for your home. The right size comes from a load calculation by a contractor.

Want every qualifier’s peer percentiles and the all-sizes board? Switch to Advanced

What good looks like: ducted, up to 1.5 tons

Good is better than half of this size class, great is the top quarter, top is the top 10%. The scale comes from the class’s own ratings.

  • Capacity at 5°F vs 47°F

    Heating power kept at 5°F

    How much of its mild-weather heating power the unit still delivers at 5°F.

    Good
    74%+
    Great
    95%+
    Top 10%
    100%+

  • COP at 5°F

    Efficiency on a 5°F day

    How much heat the unit makes from each unit of electricity when it is 5°F outside.

    Good
    2.00+
    Great
    2.20+
    Top 10%
    2.41+

  • HSPF2

    Winter-long heating efficiency

    Heating efficiency over a whole winter, measured with a federal test.

    Good
    9.3+
    Great
    10.0+
    Top 10%
    10.6+

Next steps

The advanced view adds the all-sizes boards, each qualifier’s peer percentiles, charts of every model in each size class, and the EER2 and heat output boards.

Open the advanced view