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Top cold-climate picks by size

Heat pumps that keep most of their heat when it is 5°F outside, ranked on three ratings at once against units their size: how much heat they keep, how efficient they are at 5°F, and how efficient they are over a whole winter (HSPF2).

Covers heat pumps sold new today (R-454B and R-32 refrigerant). See older R-410A models · Updated

Showing Ducted, 3.5–4.5 tons (39,000–56,999 Btu/h cooling). What size is my system?

Top cold-climate picks, ducted 3.5–4.5 tons

Only units that keep at least 70% of their heat at 5°F, ranked on heat kept, efficiency at 5°F and seasonal efficiency (HSPF2), against units their size.

1,257 of 2,580 models in this size class qualify. 944 keep less than 70% of their heat at 5°F and 379 have no 5°F heat output rating, so they cannot show it.

  1. 1RD18AY48AJVCwith indoor coil D(A,C,E)60B4J+TDR and furnace R801V0754A17DZRheem3.5 tons · 39,000 Btu/h · DuctedKeeps 125% of its heat at 5°FMeets CEE 2025, CEE 2026, CEE Advanced, Xcel CC, DOE CCHP, ENERGY STAR CC
    Heat kept at 5°F
    125% (Capacity at 5°F vs 47°F)
    Top 10%
    Efficiency at 5°F
    2.80 (COP at 5°F)
    Top 10%
    Seasonal efficiency
    10.0 (HSPF2)
    Great
    95.2score / 100
  2. 25TWV0X48A1with indoor coil D(A,C,E)60B4J+TDR and furnace S9V2D120U5PSC+LRPTrane3.5 tons · 41,500 Btu/h · DuctedKeeps 108% of its heat at 5°FMeets CEE 2025, CEE 2026, CEE Advanced, Xcel CC, DOE CCHP, ENERGY STAR CC
    Heat kept at 5°F
    108% (Capacity at 5°F vs 47°F)
    Top 10%
    Efficiency at 5°F
    2.81 (COP at 5°F)
    Top 10%
    Seasonal efficiency
    9.5 (HSPF2)
    Great
    92.9score / 100
  3. 3BOVA-60MTB-M19Ewith ducted air handler AE*L+DM60B4Z+TXV+TDRBosch4 tons · 49,000 Btu/h · DuctedKeeps 120% of its heat at 5°FMeets CEE 2025, CEE 2026, CEE Advanced, Xcel CC, DOE CCHP, ENERGY STAR CC
    Heat kept at 5°F
    120% (Capacity at 5°F vs 47°F)
    Top 10%
    Efficiency at 5°F
    2.47 (COP at 5°F)
    Top 10%
    Seasonal efficiency
    9.5 (HSPF2)
    Great
    90.9score / 100
  4. 4SL22KLV-060-230A**with indoor coil D(A,C,E)60D3J+TDR and furnace SLP99UH110XV60CLennox4.5 tons · 52,500 Btu/h · DuctedKeeps 115% of its heat at 5°FMeets CEE 2025, CEE 2026, CEE Advanced, Xcel CC, DOE CCHP, ENERGY STAR CC
    Heat kept at 5°F
    115% (Capacity at 5°F vs 47°F)
    Top 10%
    Efficiency at 5°F
    3.09 (COP at 5°F)
    Top 10%
    Seasonal efficiency
    9.0 (HSPF2)
    Good
    90.8score / 100
  5. 5KUMXA481ALG4 tons · 48,000 Btu/h · DuctedKeeps 100% of its heat at 5°FMeets CEE 2025, CEE 2026, CEE Advanced, Xcel CC, DOE CCHP, ENERGY STAR CC
    Heat kept at 5°F
    100% (Capacity at 5°F vs 47°F)
    Top 10%
    Efficiency at 5°F
    2.33 (COP at 5°F)
    Great
    Seasonal efficiency
    10.0 (HSPF2)
    Great
    90.4score / 100
  6. 6HH860E2S11with ducted air handler DM59A4K+JMC20D2SN1+TDRYork (sold as Coleman)3.5 tons · 43,000 Btu/h · DuctedKeeps 108% of its heat at 5°FMeets CEE 2025, CEE 2026, CEE Advanced, Xcel CC, DOE CCHP, ENERGY STAR CC
    Heat kept at 5°F
    108% (Capacity at 5°F vs 47°F)
    Top 10%
    Efficiency at 5°F
    2.88 (COP at 5°F)
    Top 10%
    Seasonal efficiency
    9.0 (HSPF2)
    Good
    90.3score / 100
  7. 7H5H0V48*K*AAA*with indoor coil D(A,C,E)61A3J+TDR and furnace *80CSU0802120ACarrier (sold as HEIL)3.5 tons · 43,000 Btu/h · DuctedKeeps 103% of its heat at 5°FMeets CEE 2025, CEE 2026, CEE Advanced, Xcel CC, DOE CCHP, ENERGY STAR CC
    Heat kept at 5°F
    103% (Capacity at 5°F vs 47°F)
    Top 10%
    Efficiency at 5°F
    2.70 (COP at 5°F)
    Top 10%
    Seasonal efficiency
    9.0 (HSPF2)
    Good
    89.7score / 100
  8. 8KUMXA421ALG3.5 tons · 42,000 Btu/h · DuctedKeeps 100% of its heat at 5°FMeets CEE 2025, CEE 2026, CEE Advanced, Xcel CC, DOE CCHP, ENERGY STAR CC
    Heat kept at 5°F
    100% (Capacity at 5°F vs 47°F)
    Top 10%
    Efficiency at 5°F
    2.27 (COP at 5°F)
    Great
    Seasonal efficiency
    10.0 (HSPF2)
    Great
    89.3score / 100
  9. 9GUD60W2/NHE-D(U)with ducted air handler HND60A/NHA-OGree4.5 tons · 53,000 Btu/h · DuctedKeeps 100% of its heat at 5°FMeets CEE 2025, CEE 2026, CEE Advanced, Xcel CC, DOE CCHP, ENERGY STAR CC
    Heat kept at 5°F
    100% (Capacity at 5°F vs 47°F)
    Top 10%
    Efficiency at 5°F
    2.20 (COP at 5°F)
    Great
    Seasonal efficiency
    10.5 (HSPF2)
    Top 10%
    88.7score / 100
  10. 10FXU60HP230V1R32AOwith ducted air handler FXA60HPDV1R32AHGreeAlso sold as Tosot TUH60-48D32E2O; also listed as HW60/NHE-D4.5 tons · 53,000 Btu/h · DuctedKeeps 100% of its heat at 5°FMeets CEE 2025, CEE 2026, CEE Advanced, Xcel CC, DOE CCHP, ENERGY STAR CC
    Heat kept at 5°F
    100% (Capacity at 5°F vs 47°F)
    Top 10%
    Efficiency at 5°F
    2.20 (COP at 5°F)
    Great
    Seasonal efficiency
    10.5 (HSPF2)
    Top 10%
    88.7score / 100

These are certified test ratings, not a recommendation for your home. The right size comes from a load calculation by a contractor.

Want every qualifier’s peer percentiles and the all-sizes board? Switch to Advanced

What good looks like: ducted, 3.5–4.5 tons

Good is better than half of this size class, great is the top quarter, top is the top 10%. The scale comes from the class’s own ratings.

  • Capacity at 5°F vs 47°F

    Heating power kept at 5°F

    How much of its mild-weather heating power the unit still delivers at 5°F.

    Good
    71%+
    Great
    84%+
    Top 10%
    98%+

  • COP at 5°F

    Efficiency on a 5°F day

    How much heat the unit makes from each unit of electricity when it is 5°F outside.

    Good
    2.00+
    Great
    2.10+
    Top 10%
    2.36+

  • HSPF2

    Winter-long heating efficiency

    Heating efficiency over a whole winter, measured with a federal test.

    Good
    8.1+
    Great
    9.0+
    Top 10%
    10.4+

Next steps

The advanced view adds the all-sizes boards, each qualifier’s peer percentiles, charts of every model in each size class, and the EER2 and heat output boards.

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