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Compare certified heat pump ratings by size

Official test ratings for 12,478 central and mini-split heat pumps sold with today’s refrigerants, explained in plain words. Models are only compared with others of the same size and type.

Covers heat pumps sold new today (R-454B and R-32 refrigerant). See older R-410A models · Updated

Three numbers worth knowing

  • 57%

    of models meet CEE 2025 Tier 1, the efficiency level many utility rebates use.

    7,144 of 12,478 models.

    See which ones

  • 72%

    of its 47°F heating output is what the typical heat pump still puts out at 5°F in the test.

    The best on this one rating keep all of it, or more.

    See them by size

  • 2.6%

    reach the cold-climate tier: full heating output and a COP of 2.1 or more at 5°F.

    About 1 in 40 models (327).

    See the cold-climate tier

Heating output as it gets colderIn the 5°F test, the typical ducted heat pump puts out 71% of its 47°F heating output, and the typical ductless one 67%.

Middle value (median) of the 4,554 models with cold-weather test results. Each model is measured against its own 47°F output, so sizes are not mixed. Source: NEEP cold-climate heat pump list.

Want the full temperature curves and every model’s distribution? Switch to Advanced

Top cold-climate picks, ducted 2.5–3 tons

Only units that keep at least 70% of their heat at 5°F, ranked on heat kept, efficiency at 5°F and seasonal efficiency (HSPF2), against units their size.

1,067 of 2,207 models in this size class qualify. 853 keep less than 70% of their heat at 5°F and 287 have no 5°F heat output rating, so they cannot show it.

Showing Ducted, 2.5–3 tons (27,000–38,999 Btu/h cooling). What size is my system?

  1. 1RD18AY36AJVCwith ducted air handler L(E,G)M36FJRheem2.5 tons · 30,800 Btu/h · DuctedKeeps 109% of its heat at 5°FMeets CEE 2025, CEE 2026, CEE Advanced, Xcel CC, DOE CCHP, ENERGY STAR CC
    Heat kept at 5°F
    109% (Capacity at 5°F vs 47°F)
    Top 10%
    Efficiency at 5°F
    2.86 (COP at 5°F)
    Top 10%
    Seasonal efficiency
    10.0 (HSPF2)
    Great
    94.4score / 100
  2. 2SL22KLV-036-230A**with ducted air handler CBK48MVT-060-230-Lennox3 tons · 35,200 Btu/h · DuctedKeeps 102% of its heat at 5°FMeets CEE 2025, CEE 2026, CEE Advanced, Xcel CC, DOE CCHP, ENERGY STAR CC
    Heat kept at 5°F
    102% (Capacity at 5°F vs 47°F)
    Top 10%
    Efficiency at 5°F
    2.42 (COP at 5°F)
    Top 10%
    Seasonal efficiency
    10.5 (HSPF2)
    Top 10%
    93.4score / 100
  3. 3HH836E2S11with indoor coil D(A,C,E)36A4K+TDR and furnace Z9ET080C16SMPS1York (sold as Coleman)2.5 tons · 30,800 Btu/h · DuctedKeeps 106% of its heat at 5°FMeets CEE 2025, CEE 2026, CEE Advanced, Xcel CC, DOE CCHP, ENERGY STAR CC
    Heat kept at 5°F
    106% (Capacity at 5°F vs 47°F)
    Top 10%
    Efficiency at 5°F
    2.93 (COP at 5°F)
    Top 10%
    Seasonal efficiency
    9.5 (HSPF2)
    Great
    92.2score / 100
  4. 4MST273G32MHAADaikin (sold as Goodman)2.5 tons · 28,000 Btu/h · DuctedKeeps 100% of its heat at 5°FMeets CEE 2025, CEE 2026, CEE Advanced, Xcel CC, DOE CCHP, ENERGY STAR CC
    Heat kept at 5°F
    100% (Capacity at 5°F vs 47°F)
    Great
    Efficiency at 5°F
    2.20 (COP at 5°F)
    Great
    Seasonal efficiency
    10.5 (HSPF2)
    Top 10%
    90.1score / 100
  5. 5MOE30-36HFN10-M3Xwith ducted air handler MVBDM-36HWFN10-WC3Midea (sold as MDV)3 tons · 36,000 Btu/h · DuctedKeeps 100% of its heat at 5°FMeets CEE 2025, CEE 2026, CEE Advanced, Xcel CC, DOE CCHP, ENERGY STAR CC
    Heat kept at 5°F
    100% (Capacity at 5°F vs 47°F)
    Great
    Efficiency at 5°F
    2.46 (COP at 5°F)
    Top 10%
    Seasonal efficiency
    10.0 (HSPF2)
    Great
    88.7score / 100

Top 10 cold-climate picks, ducted, 2.5–3 tons

These are certified test ratings, not a recommendation for your home. The right size comes from a load calculation by a contractor.

What good looks like: ducted, 2.5–3 tons

The words on the picks above: good is better than half of this size class, great is the top quarter, top is the top 10%. Each scale comes from the class’s own ratings.

  • Capacity at 5°F vs 47°F

    Heating power kept at 5°F

    How much of its mild-weather heating power the unit still delivers at 5°F.

    Good
    70%+
    Great
    90%+
    Top 10%
    100%+

  • COP at 5°F

    Efficiency on a 5°F day

    How much heat the unit makes from each unit of electricity when it is 5°F outside.

    Good
    2.00+
    Great
    2.10+
    Top 10%
    2.36+

  • HSPF2

    Winter-long heating efficiency

    Heating efficiency over a whole winter, measured with a federal test.

    Good
    8.3+
    Great
    9.2+
    Top 10%
    10.2+

What size is my system?

Tons and Btu

A heat pump’s size is its rated cooling output, in Btu per hour. Installers talk in tons: one ton is 12,000 Btu per hour, so a 3-ton unit is about 36,000.

Where to find yours: the nameplate sticker on the outdoor unit lists the model number. Many model numbers include the size in thousands of Btu, such as 24 (2 tons), 36 (3 tons) or 48 (4 tons). Your quote or AHRI certificate also lists it. Look up a model number

These are certified test ratings, not a recommendation for your home. The right size comes from a load calculation by a contractor.

Size classes used here

  • Up to 1.5 tonsunder 21,000 Btu/h
  • 2 tons21,000–26,999 Btu/h
  • 2.5–3 tons27,000–38,999 Btu/h
  • 3.5–4.5 tons39,000–56,999 Btu/h
  • 5 tons and up57,000 Btu/h and up

Ducted or ductless

A ducted (central) heat pump moves air through a home’s ducts. A ductless mini-split puts a small unit on the wall of each room. Mini-splits usually test higher (typical cooling rating 21.0 vs 16.0), partly because the test for ducted units includes pushing air through ducts. That is why they are never ranked together here.

Next steps

Contractor, utility or analyst? The advanced view has every distribution, peer percentile, standards flow and data table behind these answers.

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