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Heat pump efficiency data for 12,326 certified models

Every split air-source heat pump certified by AHRI with R-454B and R-32, joined with NEEP cold-climate ratings and ENERGY STAR listings. Counts are certified models, not sales.

New to heat pump ratings? The Simple view explains them in plain words →

Heat pump market dataData as of updated · sources

Outdoor models
12,326
Manufacturers
343
Brand names
403
Marketed names, grouped under their manufacturer
AHRI certifications
895,611
Each is one outdoor + indoor pairing
Every certified model by size and rating14,508 outdoor models with a known size and duct type · Low-GWP (R-454B, R-32)At 5°F, ducted and non-ducted models are close (median COP 2.00 and 2.00). On cooling they are not: median SEER2 21.0 non-ducted, 16.0 ducted. That gap is why every ranking compares a model only with models of its own size and duct type.
  • Ducted model (sample)
  • Non-ducted model (sample)
  • Ducted median by size
  • Non-ducted median by size
  • Every model at each size (width = count)
  • Standard threshold

Dots: 1,200 of 14,508 models, a fixed sample drawn from every size and duct type in proportion; the grey shapes count all of them, half a ton at a time. A model is plotted through its representative certification; the few beyond the axis range are counted but not drawn.
Show the data as a table
COP at 5°F by size and duct type (every model, by rated cooling capacity)
Duct type, sizeModels10th pct.25thMedian75th90th
Ducted, 0.5 tons8261.641.711.751.852.24
Ducted, 1 ton4071.801.902.052.412.45
Ducted, 1.5 tons9921.751.862.002.172.40
Ducted, 2 tons9991.751.862.002.182.30
Ducted, 2.5 tons1,0401.701.802.002.102.36
Ducted, 3 tons6961.801.902.002.102.42
Ducted, 3.5 tons8641.701.802.002.102.46
Ducted, 4 tons7271.801.862.002.122.40
Ducted, 4.5 tons6901.701.801.902.102.20
Ducted, 5 tons861.892.002.102.102.10
Non-ducted, 0.5 tons1,1861.751.801.902.002.22
Non-ducted, 1 ton1,3431.801.801.992.102.21
Non-ducted, 1.5 tons1,2611.801.802.002.102.31
Non-ducted, 2 tons7611.801.982.002.102.30
Non-ducted, 2.5 tons4031.801.852.002.002.10
Non-ducted, 3 tons4731.901.982.002.032.20
Non-ducted, 3.5 tons2802.002.002.002.052.10
Non-ducted, 4 tons2041.962.002.052.102.11
Non-ducted, 4.5 tons781.901.911.952.012.01
Non-ducted, 5 tons841.992.002.052.202.20

Source: AHRI Directory · as of

Key facts

How many models meet each standard

A model counts when at least one of its certified indoor pairings meets every criterion on its own.
From duct type to cold-climate tier12,326 outdoor models; each band is the models that share a path, each model in exactly one band57.1% of models meet CEE Tier 1 (2025) and 55.6% the stricter 2026 level, but only 2.6% (322) reach the cold-climate tier: full capacity and a COP of 2.1 at 5°F. 1 of those miss Tier 1 itself, on a cooling rating.
Duct typeCEE Tier 1CEE Advanced / DOE CCHP

Cold-climate tier = CEE Advanced, which uses the same rating criteria as the DOE Cold Climate Heat Pump Challenge (HSPF2 8.5, COP 2.1 at 5°F, 100% capacity at 5°F). It has no SEER2/EER2 path, so a model can reach it without meeting Tier 1.
Show the data as a table
Models per path
Duct typeHighest CEE Tier 1Cold-climate tierModels
DuctedCEE 2026Yes113
DuctedCEE 2026No1,862
DuctedCEE 2025 onlyNo116
DuctedBelow Tier 1Yes1
DuctedBelow Tier 1No3,968
Non-ductedCEE 2026Yes97
Non-ductedCEE 2026No2,668
Non-ductedCEE 2025 onlyNo54
Non-ductedBelow Tier 1No1,262
Ducted + ductless headsCEE 2026Yes111
Ducted + ductless headsCEE 2026No1,998
Ducted + ductless headsCEE 2025 onlyNo15
Ducted + ductless headsBelow Tier 1No61

Source: AHRI Directory, criteria from CEE and DOE · as of

Out of 12,326 outdoor models (Low-GWP (R-454B, R-32))
StandardShare of modelsModels
CEE 2025 Tier 1 (Split ASHP)Consortium for Energy Efficiency57.1%7,034
CEE 2026 Tier 1 (Split ASHP)Consortium for Energy Efficiency55.6%6,849
CEE Advanced Tier (Split ASHP)Consortium for Energy Efficiency2.6%322
Xcel Energy Colorado cold-climate ASHP (2025)Xcel Energy52.8%6,511
DOE Cold Climate Heat Pump ChallengeU.S. Department of Energy2.6%322
ENERGY STAR Cold ClimateU.S. EPA41.7%5,143

Cold-weather leaders

Top cold-climate picks first: Qualifies when its capacity retention at 5°F (capacity at 5°F as a share of capacity at 47°F) is at least 70% and Capacity retention at 5°F, COP at 5°F, HSPF2 are all rated. Score = the equal-weight mean of its peer percentiles on Capacity retention at 5°F, COP at 5°F, HSPF2 (share of the other models in its peer group it beats, 0–100), all from one certified pairing: in each duct type a model is sold in, its qualifying pairing of that type with the best score; equal scores (one decimal) go to the higher heating capacity at 5°F. One model per manufacturer, among manufacturers with a QMID on file. The two single-rating boards beside it are ranked by that one rating only.

Top cold-climate picks, all sizes

  1. 1AOUH09KTAP1FujitsuNon-ducted, up to 1.5 tonsHeat kept at 5°F 142% (beats 99%)Efficiency at 5°F 2.48 (beats 98%)Seasonal efficiency 14.0 (beats 98%)98.5score
  2. 2AVW-60F3DAH2HisenseNon-ducted, 5 tons and upHeat kept at 5°F 100% (beats 99%)Efficiency at 5°F 2.30 (beats 97%)Seasonal efficiency 11.0 (beats 98%)98.2score
  3. 3CHV6-RS60URBMHHCooper&HunterNon-ducted, 5 tons and upHeat kept at 5°F 100% (beats 99%)Efficiency at 5°F 2.30 (beats 97%)Seasonal efficiency 11.0 (beats 98%)98.2score
  4. 4YPAS30BLFASDQ1YorkNon-ducted, 2.5–3 tonsHeat kept at 5°F 103% (beats 94%)Efficiency at 5°F 2.40 (beats 99%)Seasonal efficiency 12.0 (beats 100%)97.5score
  5. 5MUZ-FX06NLHZ***Mitsubishi ElectricNon-ducted, up to 1.5 tonsAlso listed as MUZ-FX06NLHZ2Heat kept at 5°F 140% (beats 99%)Efficiency at 5°F 2.38 (beats 96%)Seasonal efficiency 13.0 (beats 97%)97.5score

Full cold-climate leaderboard

Ranked by COP at 5°F only

  1. 1PUZ-AK42NL***Mitsubishi ElectricNon-ducted, 3.5–4.5 tons2.70beats 100%
  2. 27HP14F30P-**ALennoxDucted, 2.5–3 tons4.06beats 100%
  3. 3NS21H36MA5-**AGE AppliancesDucted, 2.5–3 tons4.00beats 100%
  4. 4MOM27H2XE3AInnovairNon-ducted, 2.5–3 tons2.80beats 100%
  5. 5MCY-MUB0488HS2P-ULCarrierNon-ducted, 3.5–4.5 tons2.50beats 100%

Full COP at 5°F leaderboard

Ranked by capacity retention at 5°F only

  1. 137MPRAQ06AA3CarrierNon-ducted, up to 1.5 tonsAlso sold as Midea 37MPRAQ06AA3, MDV MOX430-06HFN10-M1H150%beats 100%
  2. 2D5CPRAH06AAKMideaNon-ducted, up to 1.5 tonsAlso sold as Arcoaire D5CPRAH06AAK150%beats 100%
  3. 3BMS635SHYCBlueRidgeNon-ducted, up to 1.5 tonsAlso listed as BXS6A06UC0150%beats 100%
  4. 4ML06HP230CALH-ORheemNon-ducted, up to 1.5 tons150%beats 100%
  5. 5A-ZHP06SA-1LennoxNon-ducted, up to 1.5 tons150%beats 100%

Full Capacity retention at 5°F leaderboard

How efficient is a typical heat pump at 5°F?

Half of the 11,218 models with a 5°F rating reach a COP of 2.00 or more, and the middle half sit between 1.80 and 2.10. CEE Tier 1 asks for at least 1.75; the cold-climate tier for 2.1.
COP at 5°F across every rated model11,218 outdoor models (representative certification each) · Low-GWP (R-454B, R-32)
  • Models per 0.1 COP
  • Smoothed shape
  • Middle 50% / 80%
  • Standard threshold
+40 above12 below

Show the data as a table
Models per COP at 5°F range
COP@5°F rangeModels
Below 1.4012
1.40 to under 1.5079
1.50 to under 1.60176
1.60 to under 1.70335
1.70 to under 1.801,180
1.80 to under 1.902,237
1.90 to under 2.001,350
2.00 to under 2.102,426
2.10 to under 2.201,325
2.20 to under 2.30778
2.30 to under 2.40512
2.40 to under 2.50260
2.50 to under 2.60215
2.60 to under 2.70132
2.70 to under 2.8080
2.80 to under 2.9051
2.90 to under 3.0030
3.00 and above40
Baseline: median2.00
Baseline: CEE 2025–26 / Xcel 1.751.75
Baseline: CEE Adv. / DOE CCHP 2.12.10

Source: AHRI Directory, NEEP · as of

What happens to capacity as it gets colder

Among the models listed by NEEP, a typical ducted unit still delivers 71% of its 47°F capacity at 5°F, and a typical non-ducted one 64%; efficiency falls from a COP near 3.2 to 2 over the same range.
Capacity and COP from 47°F to 5°F, ducted vs non-ductedNEEP cold-climate listings at maximum capacity · 276 models (2.2% of the catalog) have ratings at 47, 17 and 5°F
  • Ducted (median, middle 50%)
  • Non-ducted (median, middle 50%)
Heating capacity, % of its 47°F maximum71%64%COP at maximum capacity2.002.00

One curve per model: its NEEP-rated certification with the best 5°F COP. Every point of a curve is over the same models. 18 implausible NEEP points are left out. NEEP lists only models submitted to it, so this is a cold-climate-leaning subset, not the whole catalog.
Show the data as a table
Ducted: capacity, % of its 47°F maximum
Scope, temperatureModels10th pct.25thMedian75th90th
Ducted, 47°F108100%100%100%100%100%
Ducted, 17°F10863%69%77%87%91%
Ducted, 5°F10852%62%71%81%88%
Ducted: COP at maximum capacity
Scope, temperatureModels10th pct.25thMedian75th90th
Ducted, 47°F1082.832.993.233.463.7
Ducted, 17°F1082.012.172.332.52.64
Ducted, 5°F1081.711.8522.12.41
Non-ducted: capacity, % of its 47°F maximum
Scope, temperatureModels10th pct.25thMedian75th90th
Non-ducted, 47°F168100%100%100%100%100%
Non-ducted, 17°F16860%66%70%80%88%
Non-ducted, 5°F16855%57%64%71%82%
Non-ducted: COP at maximum capacity
Scope, temperatureModels10th pct.25thMedian75th90th
Non-ducted, 47°F1682.342.843.153.443.84
Non-ducted, 17°F1681.92.022.212.392.6
Non-ducted, 5°F1681.81.8622.22.34

Source: NEEP ccASHP list · as of

The refrigerant switch, as AHRI recorded it

New split heat pumps moved from R-410A to low-GWP refrigerants under the AIM Act. This view counts every active certification of both groups, ordered by AHRI reference number.
The switch from R-410A, in AHRI reference order1,641,982 active split heat pump certifications, every refrigerant, in bands of 500,000 reference numbersLow-GWP refrigerants (R-454B and R-32) first outnumber R-410A in the band starting at AHRI reference 214M. In the newest band, R-410A is down to 0.1% of certifications.
  • R-410A
  • R-454B
  • R-32
  • Other
R-454BR-32Certifications per band (peak 182,856)206M208M210M212M214M216M218MAHRI reference number (issued in increasing order)

Reference numbers stand in for dates: AHRI issues them in increasing order, and certification dates are not published. 12,793 older certifications sit in the sparse early bands before the first one shown, and 1,897 have a reference outside the 9-digit series.
Show the data as a table
Certifications per AHRI reference band and refrigerant
References fromR-410AR-454BR-32Other
206,000,0004,51300309
206,500,00010,4710026
207,000,0002,0490066
207,500,00010,2070030
208,000,0002,0030070
208,500,0005,1490320
209,000,00012,1940112
209,500,0004,7370018
210,000,00051,924046
210,500,00043,27504252
211,000,00042,080015653
211,500,00053,7460024
212,000,00050,7730810
212,500,00055,08701266
213,000,00095,90001878
213,500,000119,779061984
214,000,00059,960122,70749140
214,500,00040,63417,182216261
215,000,00015,88112,65215,40743
215,500,0007,892122,2591,2643
216,000,0002,54949,37474415
216,500,0006,17188,9772,83728
217,000,00027,814119,5592,064233
217,500,000236136,5133,04197
218,000,000110107,0873,0313,014
218,500,0004888,5951,92741

Source: AHRI Directory · as of

Largest catalogs

Share of certified outdoor models by manufacturer. A large catalog is not the same as a large market share.
Certified outdoor models by manufacturer
Show the data as a table
Certified outdoor models by manufacturer
GroupShare of models
Carrier6.6% · 816
Gree5.8% · 717
Midea4.4% · 546
Daikin3.2% · 394
Ephoca3.1% · 382
Trane2.9% · 363
Rheem2.8% · 341
Innova2.7% · 332
Lennox2.7% · 331
York1.9% · 229

The other 333 manufacturers hold 63.9% (7,875 models). All manufacturers

Sizes and duct types

Models by rated cooling capacity
SizeModels
Up to 1.5 tons4,712
2 tons1,747
2.5–3 tons2,722
3.5–4.5 tons2,687
5 tons and up458
Models by duct type
TypeModels
Ducted6,060
Non-ducted (mini-split)4,081
Both (certified with ducted and non-ducted indoor units)2,185

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