Carrier heat pump efficiency: 816 outdoor models compared

Carrier has 816 heat pump outdoor models certified with this refrigerant group, in 521,403 AHRI-certified combinations. They are also sold as AIRQUEST, ARCOAIRE, BRYANT, BRYANT HEATING AND COOLING SYSTEMS, COMFORTMAKER, DAY & NIGHT, ECOTEMP, GRANDAIRE and 11 more names. Each model is compared with models of the same size and duct type, so the scores below do not depend on which sizes Carrier makes. Ranks are among manufacturers with a QMID on file and at least 10 scored models.

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ManufacturerData as of Oct 9, 2026updated Oct 10, 2026 · sources

Outdoor models: 816
AHRI certifications: 521,403
Efficiency index: 48%; Typical model vs same-size, same-type peers (804 models)
Meet CEE 2025: 40.2%; 328 models

How Carrier compares with comparable models

For each rating: the share of same-size, same-type models that a typical model of this manufacturer beats (50% is typical), its rank, and the raw median for context. Raw medians are not comparable across manufacturers that make different sizes.

Carrier against every ranked manufacturerPeer scores, 0–100 · grey ticks: each ranked manufacturer · shaded: the middle half of Carrier’s own modelsCarrier is strongest on EER2 (its typical model beats 59% of comparable models) and weakest on capacity retention at 5°F (34%).

Carrier
Middle half of its models
Other ranked manufacturers

Source: AHRI Directory, NEEP · as of Oct 9, 2026

Average peer percentile of Carrier’s models
Rating	Beats comparable models	Rank	Raw median
Efficiency index804 models scored	48%	23rd of 29	—
COP at 5°F805 models scored	56%	16th of 29	2.04
Capacity retention at 5°F817 models scored	34%	28th of 29	53%
HSPF2888 models scored	40%	25th of 29	7.8
SEER2889 models scored	42%	23rd of 29	15.2
EER2889 models scored	59%	8th of 29	11.5
Heating capacity at 5°F817 models scored	37%	27th of 29	18,600 Btu/h

Standards met

Share of Carrier’s models with at least one qualifying certification
Standard	Share	Models
CEE 2025 Tier 1 (Split ASHP)	40.2%	328
CEE 2026 Tier 1 (Split ASHP)	35.3%	288
CEE Advanced Tier (Split ASHP)	1%	8
Xcel Energy Colorado cold-climate ASHP (2025)	27.2%	222
DOE Cold Climate Heat Pump Challenge	1%	8
ENERGY STAR Cold Climate	26.7%	218

Sizes and duct types offered

Models per peer group, and how they score against the other models of that group.

Carrier’s models inside each size and duct typeShape: every model of the group · blue: the middle half of this manufacturer’s models there, median dot, 10th–90th percentile line

Carrier (median, middle 50%, 10th–90th)
All models of the group

Source: AHRI Directory · as of Oct 9, 2026

Share of comparable models beaten, per peer group
Size and duct type	Models	Index	COP@5°F	HSPF2	SEER2
Ducted, up to 1.5 tons	69	56%	79%	40%	51%
Ducted, 2 tons	93	47%	61%	42%	41%
Ducted, 2.5–3 tons	228	45%	53%	35%	37%
Ducted, 3.5–4.5 tons	306	44%	50%	34%	37%
Ducted, 5 tons and up	68	50%	48%	42%	46%
Non-ducted, up to 1.5 tons	54	59%	69%	61%	59%
Non-ducted, 2 tons	16	57%	70%	51%	53%
Non-ducted, 2.5–3 tons	30	55%	57%	59%	53%
Non-ducted, 3.5–4.5 tons	22	47%	49%	58%	39%
Non-ducted, 5 tons and up	4	57%	56%	71%	63%

Every Carrier model in the market

Carrier’s 890 models with a known size and duct type, over the shape of the whole catalog.

Carrier models by size and ratingColoured: Carrier · grey shapes: all 14,508 models · lines: catalog medians by size

Carrier models
Ducted median by size
Non-ducted median by size
Every model at each size (width = count)
Standard threshold

Dots: 890 carrier models, each through its representative certification, in the colour of the rating shown. The grey shapes count all 14,508 models, half a ton at a time.

Show the data as a table

COP at 5°F by size and duct type (every model, by rated cooling capacity)
Duct type, size	Models	10th pct.	25th	Median	75th	90th
Ducted, 0.5 tons	826	1.64	1.71	1.75	1.85	2.24
Ducted, 1 ton	407	1.80	1.90	2.05	2.41	2.45
Ducted, 1.5 tons	992	1.75	1.86	2.00	2.17	2.40
Ducted, 2 tons	999	1.75	1.86	2.00	2.18	2.30
Ducted, 2.5 tons	1,040	1.70	1.80	2.00	2.10	2.36
Ducted, 3 tons	696	1.80	1.90	2.00	2.10	2.42
Ducted, 3.5 tons	864	1.70	1.80	2.00	2.10	2.46
Ducted, 4 tons	727	1.80	1.86	2.00	2.12	2.40
Ducted, 4.5 tons	690	1.70	1.80	1.90	2.10	2.20
Ducted, 5 tons	86	1.89	2.00	2.10	2.10	2.10
Non-ducted, 0.5 tons	1,186	1.75	1.80	1.90	2.00	2.22
Non-ducted, 1 ton	1,343	1.80	1.80	1.99	2.10	2.21
Non-ducted, 1.5 tons	1,261	1.80	1.80	2.00	2.10	2.31
Non-ducted, 2 tons	761	1.80	1.98	2.00	2.10	2.30
Non-ducted, 2.5 tons	403	1.80	1.85	2.00	2.00	2.10
Non-ducted, 3 tons	473	1.90	1.98	2.00	2.03	2.20
Non-ducted, 3.5 tons	280	2.00	2.00	2.00	2.05	2.10
Non-ducted, 4 tons	204	1.96	2.00	2.05	2.10	2.11
Non-ducted, 4.5 tons	78	1.90	1.91	1.95	2.01	2.01
Non-ducted, 5 tons	84	1.99	2.00	2.05	2.20	2.20

Source: AHRI Directory · as of Oct 9, 2026

Carrier in the cold

From NEEP’s cold-climate listings: 91 Carrier models against all 276 listed models.

Carrier capacity and COP from 47°F downNEEP cold-climate listings at maximum capacity · 276 models (2.2% of the catalog) have ratings at 47, 17 and 5°FAt 5°F a typical Carrier model keeps 70% of its 47°F capacity; the typical listed model keeps 69%.

All listed models (median, middle 50% and 80%)
Carrier (median, middle 50%)

One curve per model: its NEEP-rated certification with the best 5°F COP. Every point of a curve is over the same models. 18 implausible NEEP points are left out. NEEP lists only models submitted to it, so this is a cold-climate-leaning subset, not the whole catalog.

Show the data as a table

All listed models: capacity, % of its 47°F maximum
Scope, temperature	Models	10th pct.	25th	Median	75th	90th
All rated models, 47°F	276	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
All rated models, 17°F	276	62%	66%	73%	84%	90%
All rated models, 5°F	276	54%	59%	69%	78%	86%

All listed models: COP at maximum capacity
Scope, temperature	Models	10th pct.	25th	Median	75th	90th
All rated models, 47°F	276	2.64	2.9	3.19	3.44	3.78
All rated models, 17°F	276	1.95	2.05	2.26	2.41	2.6
All rated models, 5°F	276	1.8	1.85	2	2.11	2.36

Carrier: capacity, % of its 47°F maximum
Scope, temperature	Models	10th pct.	25th	Median	75th	90th
Carrier, 47°F	91	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Carrier, 17°F	91	65%	67%	73%	85%	88%
Carrier, 5°F	91	57%	62%	70%	78%	82%

Carrier: COP at maximum capacity
Scope, temperature	Models	10th pct.	25th	Median	75th	90th
Carrier, 47°F	91	2.8	2.98	3.19	3.44	3.58
Carrier, 17°F	91	2	2.1	2.26	2.4	2.52
Carrier, 5°F	91	1.8	1.92	2	2.1	2.3

Source: NEEP ccASHP list · as of Oct 9, 2026

Top Carrier models

Its top five cold-climate picks and its top five all-around models across sizes (both scores compare each model with models of its own size and duct type, so sizes compare), then, on each single rating, the model that beats the largest share of comparable models.

Cold-climate picks

Top 5 Carrier cold-climate picks across sizes. Qualifies when its capacity retention at 5°F (capacity at 5°F as a share of capacity at 47°F) is at least 70% and Capacity retention at 5°F, COP at 5°F, HSPF2 are all rated. Score = the equal-weight mean of its peer percentiles on Capacity retention at 5°F, COP at 5°F, HSPF2 (share of the other models in its peer group it beats, 0–100), all from one certified pairing: in each duct type a model is sold in, its qualifying pairing of that type with the best score; equal scores (one decimal) go to the higher heating capacity at 5°F.
# · Outdoor model	Size · type	Cap. 5/47	COP@5°F	HSPF2	Btu/h @5°F	SEER2	Meets	Combos	AHRI ref.	Compared with	Score
1D5CPRAH18AAARCOAIRE · D5F Serieswith ductless indoor unit D5FPHAH18XAK	1.5 tons18,000 Btu/h · Non-ducted	113%	2.34	15.2	22,600	24.5	CEE 25CEE 26CEE AdvXcelDOEES CC	10	215413214	Non-ducted, up to 1.5 tons	96.8
237MAHAQ06AA3CARRIER · 45M Serieswith ductless indoor unit 45MAHAQ06XA3Also sold as Arcoaire D5CSHAH06AAK	0.5 tons6,000 Btu/h · Non-ducted	110%	2.40	14.8	7,700	25.7	CEE 25CEE 26CEE AdvXcelDOEES CC	13	215323742	Non-ducted, up to 1.5 tons	96.7
3MCY-MUB0608HS2P-ULTOSHIBA CARRIER · MCY-MUB0608HS2P-UL	5 tons60,000 Btu/h · Ducted	73%	2.22	10.1	47,000	18.9	CEE 25CEE 26Xcel	4	216763249	Ducted, 3.5–4.5 tons	94.7
437MAHAQ06AA3CARRIER · 45M Serieswith ducted air handler 45MBDAQ06XA3Also sold as Arcoaire D5CSHAH06AAK	0.5 tons6,500 Btu/h · Ducted	98%	2.41	13.8	7,800	21.5	CEE 25CEE 26XcelES CC	13	215323798	Ducted, up to 1.5 tons	93.5
537MUHAQ18AA3BRYANT HEATING AND COOLING SYSTEMSwith indoor coil DM36A3J+TDR and furnace 8(0,1)*SB36070M17	1.5 tons16,800 Btu/h · Ducted	95%	3.00	10.8	16,000	14.8	CEE 25CEE 26CEE AdvXcelDOEES CC	1,618	218076312	Ducted, up to 1.5 tons	92.9

All-around best

Top 5 Carrier models on the all-around score across sizes. Score = 50% heating, the mean of its peer percentiles on COP at 5°F, Capacity retention at 5°F, HSPF2, plus 50% cooling, the mean of its peer percentiles on SEER2 and EER2 (share of the other models in its peer group it beats, 0–100). All five ratings are required; there is no minimum heat kept at 5°F. In each duct type a model is sold in, it is scored on its pairing of that type with the best score; equal scores (one decimal) go to the higher cold-climate score, then the higher heating capacity at 5°F.
# · Outdoor model	Size · type	Cap. 5/47	COP@5°F	HSPF2	SEER2	EER2	Meets	Combos	AHRI ref.	Compared with	Score	Heating half	Cooling half	Cold-climate score
137MAHAQ06AA3CARRIER · 45M Serieswith ductless indoor unit 45MAHAQ06XA3Also sold as Arcoaire D5CSHAH06AAK	0.5 tons6,000 Btu/h · Non-ducted	110%	2.40	14.8	25.7	18.0	CEE 25CEE 26CEE AdvXcelDOEES CC	13	215323742	Non-ducted, up to 1.5 tons	96.5	96.7	96.3	96.7
237MAHAQ06AA3CARRIER · 45M Serieswith ducted air handler 45MBDAQ06XA3Also sold as Arcoaire D5CSHAH06AAK	0.5 tons6,500 Btu/h · Ducted	98%	2.41	13.8	21.5	14.5	CEE 25CEE 26XcelES CC	13	215323798	Ducted, up to 1.5 tons	95.6	93.5	97.7	93.5
337MPRAQ06AA3CARRIER · 45M Serieswith ductless indoor unit 45MPHAQ06XA3	0.5 tons6,000 Btu/h · Non-ducted	150%	2.00	15.6	35.1	17.5	CEE 25CEE 26XcelES CC	5	215413141	Non-ducted, up to 1.5 tons	93.5	87.6	99.4	87.6
4D5CPRAH06AAKARCOAIRE · D5F Serieswith ductless indoor unit D5FPHAH06XAK	0.5 tons6,000 Btu/h · Non-ducted	150%	2.00	15.6	33.1	16.5	CEE 25CEE 26XcelES CC	9	215413211	Non-ducted, up to 1.5 tons	92.9	87.6	98.1	87.6
537MARAQ09AA3CARRIER · 45M Serieswith ductless indoor unit 45MBFAQ09XA3Also sold as Arcoaire D5CSRAH09AAK	1 ton9,000 Btu/h · Non-ducted	96%	2.27	13.9	26.0	16.3	CEE 25CEE 26XcelES CC	25	215323819	Non-ducted, up to 1.5 tons	92.6	89.5	95.7	89.5

Best model on each rating

Carrier’s model with the highest peer percentile on each rating, ranked by that one rating only
Rating	Model	Value	Compared with	Beats	AHRI ref.
COP at 5°F	MCY-MUB0488HS2P-UL	2.50	Non-ducted, 3.5–4.5 tons	100%	216760288
Capacity retention at 5°F	37MPRAQ06AA3	150%	Non-ducted, up to 1.5 tons	100%	215413141
HSPF2	37MPRAQ06AA3	15.6	Non-ducted, up to 1.5 tons	100%	215413141
SEER2	37MPRAQ06AA3	35.1	Non-ducted, up to 1.5 tons	100%	215413141
EER2	MCY-MUB0368HS2P-UL	17.2	Non-ducted, 2.5–3 tons	100%	216760287
Heating capacity at 5°F	H5H0V60KAAA*	61,000 Btu/h	Ducted, 3.5–4.5 tons	100%	218372785

All 816 Carrier models in Explore

Carrier size class by size class: cold-climate and all-around

Its best model on each board in every size and duct type it makes. Both scores are 0–100 against every model of that size class (the line on each bar is 50, the typical model there). Cold-climate picks must keep at least 70% of their heat at 5°F; the all-around score needs all five ratings and has no such bar.

Carrier: best cold-climate pick and best all-around model per size and duct type, with how many of its models are on each board (top 5 and 5 per class are in the snapshot)
Size and duct type	Cold-climate pickCold-climate score, best model	All-around bestAll-around score, best model
Ducted, up to 1.5 tons	93.5(50 is the typical model of its size class)37MAHAQ06AA3with ducted air handler 45MBDAQ06XA3Also sold as Arcoaire D5CSHAH06AAK30 of 68 models qualify · AHRI 215323798	95.6(50 is the typical model of its size class)37MAHAQ06AA3with ducted air handler 45MBDAQ06XA3Also sold as Arcoaire D5CSHAH06AAK64 of 68 models have all five ratings · AHRI 215323798
Ducted, 2 tons	85.7(50 is the typical model of its size class)37MAHAQ24AA3with ducted air handler 45MBDAQ24XH3Also sold as Arcoaire D5CSHAH24AAK44 of 94 models qualify · AHRI 215323817	82.9(50 is the typical model of its size class)27VNA324A030with ducted air handler FE5BN(B,X)C36L+UIAlso sold as Bryant Heating and Cooling Systems 293VAN024AA, HEIL B5H3V24K*AAA90 of 90 models have all five ratings · AHRI 217624252
Ducted, 2.5–3 tons	83.2(50 is the typical model of its size class)37MGHAQ36EA3Also sold as Arcoaire D5CMHAH36EAK59 of 229 models qualify · AHRI 215357119	88.0(50 is the typical model of its size class)RAV-BP301AT2P-ULwith ducted air handler RAV-HB301BTP-UL209 of 230 models have all five ratings · AHRI 216415477
Ducted, 3.5–4.5 tons	89.7(50 is the typical model of its size class)H5H0V48KAAAwith indoor coil D(A,C,E)61A3J+TDR and furnace 80CSU0802120A63 of 293 models qualify · AHRI 218372714	90.4(50 is the typical model of its size class)27VNA154A030with ducted air handler FE5BNBD60L+UIAlso sold as Bryant Heating and Cooling Systems 291VAN054*AA241 of 275 models have all five ratings · AHRI 215587917
Ducted, 5 tons and up	94.7(50 is the typical model of its size class)MCY-MUB0608HS2P-UL19 of 80 models qualify · AHRI 216763249	89.1(50 is the typical model of its size class)27VNA360A030with ducted air handler FE5BNBD60L+UIAlso sold as Bryant Heating and Cooling Systems 293VAN060AA, HEIL B5H3V60K*AAA81 of 101 models have all five ratings · AHRI 215931484
Non-ducted, up to 1.5 tons	96.8(50 is the typical model of its size class)D5CPRAH18AAwith ductless indoor unit D5FPHAH18XAK35 of 54 models qualify · AHRI 215413214	96.5(50 is the typical model of its size class)37MAHAQ06AA3with ductless indoor unit 45MAHAQ06XA3Also sold as Arcoaire D5CSHAH06AAK51 of 54 models have all five ratings · AHRI 215323742
Non-ducted, 2 tons	89.4(50 is the typical model of its size class)37MAHAQ24AA3with ductless indoor unit 45MBCAQ24XA3Also sold as Arcoaire D5CSHAH24AAK15 of 16 models qualify · AHRI 215323815	88.5(50 is the typical model of its size class)37MARAQ24AA3with ductless indoor unit 45MAHAQ24XA3Also sold as Arcoaire D5CSRAH24AAK15 of 16 models have all five ratings · AHRI 215323752
Non-ducted, 2.5–3 tons	89.4(50 is the typical model of its size class)37MBHAQ36AA3with ductless indoor unit 45MCFAQ36XA3Also sold as Arcoaire D5CLHAH36AAK21 of 30 models qualify · AHRI 215323843	91.0(50 is the typical model of its size class)RAV-BP301AT2P-ULwith ductless indoor unit RAV-HB301UTP-UL29 of 30 models have all five ratings · AHRI 216415465
Non-ducted, 3.5–4.5 tons	79.4(50 is the typical model of its size class)RAV-BP421AT2P-ULwith ductless indoor unit RAV-HB421CTP-UL18 of 22 models qualify · AHRI 216415472	84.9(50 is the typical model of its size class)MCY-MUB0488HS2P-UL20 of 22 models have all five ratings · AHRI 216760288
Non-ducted, 5 tons and up	50.6(50 is the typical model of its size class)37VMB060HDS3-11 of 4 models qualify · AHRI 216369714	69.0(50 is the typical model of its size class)MCY-MUB0608HS2P-UL4 of 4 models have all five ratings · AHRI 216763251

All-around board, every manufacturer

Newest Carrier certifications

By AHRI reference number; AHRI issues references in increasing order.

The 5 most recently certified Carrier outdoor models
Outdoor model	Size · type	COP@5°F	Cap. 5/47	HSPF2	SEER2	Meets	Combos	AHRI ref.
D5CURAH24AAKDAY & NIGHTwith ducted air handler (H,G)73A*24+TXV+TD	2 tons24,000 Btu/h · Ducted	1.78	79%	8.9	16.0	CEE 25CEE 26XcelES CC	2,809	218827644
D5CURAH18AAKDAY & NIGHTwith ducted air handler (H,G)73A*24+TXV+TD	1.5 tons18,000 Btu/h · Ducted	1.78	63%	8.5	16.0	CEE 25CEE 26Xcel	2,278	218827643
D5CUHAH24AAKDAY & NIGHTwith ducted air handler (H,G)73A*24+TXV+TD	2 tons24,000 Btu/h · Ducted	1.78	88%	9.4	16.0	CEE 25CEE 26XcelES CC	5,088	218827642
D5CUHAH18AAKDAY & NIGHTwith ducted air handler (H,G)73A*24+TXV+TD	1.5 tons18,000 Btu/h · Ducted	2.04	101%	9.4	16.0	CEE 25CEE 26CEE AdvXcelDOEES CC	1,253	218827641
37MUHAQ60AA3BRYANTwith ducted air handler (H,P)G86*60+TXV+TD	4 tons47,000 Btu/h · Ducted	1.83	76%	8.1	15.2	CEE 25CEE 26XcelES CC	235	218827640

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Compare Carrier

Manufacturers of a similar size, side by side.

Compare with any manufacturer

Carrier includes these brand names as listed in AHRI: AIRQUEST, ARCOAIRE, BRYANT, BRYANT HEATING AND COOLING SYSTEMS, CARRIER, COMFORTMAKER, DAY & NIGHT, ECOTEMP, GRANDAIRE, HEIL, ICP COMMERCIAL, KEEPRITE, KENMORE, MARATHERM, PAYNE, PAYNE HEATING AND COOLING, SMART COMFORT, TEMPSTAR, TOSHIBA CARRIER, Weathermaker. Standards are checked against published thresholds; program rules beyond ratings are not checked.